My writing time has been squeezed a lot lately, but I found myself with a little crossover time today. Part of the construction specifier chapter I am involved with is presentations and learning sessions about what’s coming in the construction industry. This evening we were listening to a talk about the future infrastructure needs based on urban air mobility.
Yes, people are still talking about flying cars. Uber has actually had a full design contest involving a scenario involving take off and landing areas for flying vehicles that “everyday” people would have access to (something like 600 people per hour through the ‘vertiport’).
The presentation was from one of the top three firms in that design competition.
I listened, but I’m not buying. I understand the efficiency and practicality of what they’re saying. I do. I love the concept and I really wish this was something we could make work. My personal experience with vehicles that fly in that manner make me believe this will not work.
First – I’ve seen the way people in the U.S. treat public transport. How many people do you know that actually take the bus? Do the bus routes go where you need them to go? Are you willing to wait on that schedule if you have a list of things to get done today? We need to do more in the public transportation arena, but I just don’t see this working the way they envision. So I don’t see it as “public” transport. Could it work like a taxi? Maybe. Uber has crashed into the taxi market and made some significant changes there. IF a “Sky-Uber” was available, some people would take it. This is fantastic for business movements locally, but my first thought was what about the drunks? That won’t end well… unless you’re into riding the vomit comet.
Second – you’re depending on pilots at first. There’s a plan / thought / idea to have automated pilots, but the automated systems are a long way off. We’ve seen that with the self driving car. The self driving cars have loads of problems based on what actually happens in an urban environment. Now take all those issues and multiply them based on the simple fact that they fly. We’ve always had a ‘hub and spoke’ kind of plan with our transport systems – but does having a person going around this wheel and not to the hub really work? A massive cluster of people is still a massive cluster of people. There’s no way to get around that. People don’t move quickly when they’re staggering out of the stadium after the big game (for example).
Third – you’re talking about taking away the individual vehicle use to a certain degree. This may be the part where I’m old, but part of what makes a trip lasting in your memory is the actual journey. The actual ride. YOU are in control of where you go and when you stop. With UAM (urban air mobility) you also have to share a ride. Yes, there are times when you don’t want to spend part of your vacation time sitting stuck on the highway. I’ve been in that situation. It sucks. The highway was at a dead stop for hours. We snuck off an exit and went to a local mall to spend time outside of the car. We would never have had that little ‘side quest’ if we’d just flown around the issue. Sure, it would have meant we got to where we were headed faster, but that mall is now on our radar when we travel and it never would have been if not for our willingness to go someplace else just to get around.
Lastly – these vehicles do not account for people that don’t fit the ‘accepted average’. I’ve gone into flight places and dealt with people flying helicopters. I was charged almost 30% additional ‘fee’ based on the fact that carrying somebody my size simply uses more fuel (and therefore decreases the flight distance) or as much as being asked to purchase 2 seats. I’m not a fan. Ground transport actually eliminates a number of these factors, or perhaps simply accounts for them. I can use any number of these vehicles to go from place to place. A flying Uber does not fill me with the belief that it will work for me.
Is this something that’s coming in the future?
Probably. There is definitely a movement to get away from individual owned vehicles. There are definitely members of certain demographics that are completely willing to use something like this. We’re going to need to plan for this, but I don’t see it happening as quickly as they claim. They’re looking for 2028 as a start point (complete with FAA test sites). I suspect that the current pandemic and the massive move to conducting most business via an online presence will dent that significantly. I have very little need to actually drive anywhere right now, and depending on where a function is and what virtual options are available, I might still not go in person. Kind of depends on what the event is. It’s going to be a tough sell.
Uber does have some fascinating stuff out there that’s worth paying attention to. I would suggest checking them out and dare I say it? Watch the Skies!